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Forecasting with exponential smoothing Anne B. Koehler, J. Keith Ord, Ralph D. Snyder, Rob Hyndman
Publisher: Springer

Traditional forecasting methods, such as exponential smoothing and moving averages, that are designed for normal, high-volume demand just don't work well with intermittent demand. Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing Keywords: exponential smoothing, Fourier series, prediction intervals, seasonality, state space models, time series decomposition. Like the regression forecast, the double exponential smoothing forecast is based on the assumption of a model consisting of a constant plus a linear trend. I'm using exponential smoothing (Brown's method) for forecasting. Shared By:Doiyan; Date:2013-02-12 00:08:55; Source:SlideShare; Store:Free Docs; Category:Art & Literature. Forecasting exponential smoothing. The forecast can be calculated for one or more steps (time intervals). Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. Exponential smoothing, hampir sama dengan moving average yaitu merupakan teknik forecasting yang sederhana, tetapi telah menggunakan suatu penimbang (w) dengan besaran antara 0 hingga 1. Is there any way to calculate confidence intervals for such prognosis (ex-ante)?